Forecast

An early, transparent fundamentals baseline for the 2026 Senate, with a Monte Carlo chamber simulation (correlated national swing) over the 33 contested seats plus the holdover seats not up this cycle. V1 input is partisan lean only — each state's 2024 two-party presidential margin (MEDSL) vs the nation. It does not yet include polls (no open feed — see sources), the midterm penalty, incumbency, or candidate quality, so read it as a partisan-lean starting point, not a final prediction. Every figure traces to its source.

Methodology and inputs are published for neutrality; the model is backtested and calibrated before publishing.