Forecast
An early, transparent fundamentals model for the 2026 Senate, with a Monte Carlo chamber simulation (correlated national swing) over the 33 contested seats plus the holdover seats not up this cycle. The lean starts from each state's 2024 two-party presidential margin (MEDSL) vs the nation, then applies a midterm penalty (the president's party typically loses ground), incumbency, and a campaign-finance signal, with the uncertainty widening the further out we are from election day. It still does not include polls (no open feed — see sources) or candidate quality, so read it as an early estimate, not a final prediction. Every figure traces to its source.
Senate
As of 2026-07-02T23:43:19.745024+00:00 · 10,000 simulations
- Democrats
- Republicans / others
Shaded band = the 80% simulation range (47–50 Dem seats; median 48); the line marks the 51-seat majority.
What would flip control?
Democrats average 48.4 seats and need 51 for a majority — a gap of 2.6. Control lands Democratic in 3% of the 10,000 simulations; the rest keep it Republican. The 80% range (47–50) reflects a single correlated national swing moving every seat together — the tails a toss-up chamber turns on.
Win probability by state
Democratic win probability for each contested 2026 Senate seat. States not up this cycle are unshaded.
- Safe D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Safe R
Colour intensity encodes confidence; Republican-favoured states also carry a diagonal hatch so the map stays legible in grayscale. Full figures are in the table below.
Forecast by state
Text equivalent of the map above.
| State | Dem win probability | Forecast margin | 80% margin range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | 100% | D+37.2 | D+25.6 – D+48.7 |
| Delaware | 100% | D+27.2 | D+15.7 – D+38.7 |
| Oregon | 100% | D+27.3 | D+15.7 – D+38.8 |
| Rhode Island | 100% | D+26.2 | D+14.7 – D+37.8 |
| Colorado | 99% | D+23.1 | D+11.5 – D+34.6 |
| Illinois | 99% | D+22.8 | D+11.2 – D+34.3 |
| New Mexico | 98% | D+18.6 | D+7.0 – D+30.1 |
| New Jersey | 98% | D+18.4 | D+6.8 – D+29.9 |
| Virginia | 98% | D+18.1 | D+6.5 – D+29.6 |
| Minnesota | 95% | D+15.0 | D+3.4 – D+26.5 |
| New Hampshire | 92% | D+12.8 | D+1.2 – D+24.3 |
| Maine | 90% | D+11.6 | EVEN – D+23.1 |
| Michigan | 84% | D+9.1 | R+2.5 – D+20.6 |
| Georgia | 83% | D+8.5 | R+3.1 – D+20.0 |
| North Carolina | 57% | D+1.6 | R+10.0 – D+13.1 |
| Texas | 18% | R+8.3 | R+19.8 – D+3.3 |
| Alaska | 12% | R+10.4 | R+22.0 – D+1.1 |
| Iowa | 10% | R+11.5 | R+23.0 – D+0.1 |
| Kansas | 3% | R+16.8 | R+28.3 – R+5.3 |
| South Carolina | 3% | R+17.4 | R+28.9 – R+5.8 |
| Montana | 1% | R+21.9 | R+33.4 – R+10.3 |
| Nebraska | 1% | R+22.4 | R+34.0 – R+10.9 |
| Mississippi | 1% | R+22.5 | R+34.0 – R+10.9 |
| Louisiana | 0% | R+23.6 | R+35.1 – R+12.0 |
| South Dakota | 0% | R+31.0 | R+42.5 – R+19.4 |
| Alabama | 0% | R+32.3 | R+43.9 – R+20.8 |
| Arkansas | 0% | R+31.8 | R+43.4 – R+20.3 |
| Kentucky | 0% | R+31.6 | R+43.2 – R+20.1 |
| Tennessee | 0% | R+31.7 | R+43.3 – R+20.2 |
| Idaho | 0% | R+39.1 | R+50.7 – R+27.6 |
| Oklahoma | 0% | R+36.4 | R+47.9 – R+24.8 |
| West Virginia | 0% | R+43.6 | R+55.2 – R+32.1 |
| Wyoming | 0% | R+48.5 | R+60.1 – R+37.0 |
Methodology and inputs are published for neutrality; the model is backtested and calibrated before publishing.