The 39 competitive 2026 U.S. House races, grouped by state. Each district is drawn from
its congressional-district boundary and coloured by the forecast lean — the direction the model
favours, not how competitive the seat is. Select a state to jump to its districts; select a
district to open its race.
States with competitive races
Coloured by the majority lean of each state's competitive districts.
Leans Democratic
Leans Republican
Even / no forecast
Arizona (9)
Arizona competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
AZ-01
Republican
R+4.1
AZ-02
Even
—
AZ-03
Even
—
AZ-04
Even
—
AZ-05
Even
—
AZ-06
Republican
R+4.1
AZ-07
Even
—
AZ-08
Even
—
AZ-09
Even
—
California (5)
California competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
CA-13
Democratic
D+33.2
CA-22
Democratic
D+24.2
CA-27
Democratic
D+28.2
CA-41
Democratic
D+28.2
CA-45
Democratic
D+28.2
Colorado (1)
Colorado competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
CO-08
Democratic
D+14.7
Iowa (2)
Iowa competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
IA-01
Republican
R+10.0
IA-03
Republican
R+10.0
Maine (1)
Maine competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
ME-02
Democratic
D+14.5
Michigan (2)
Michigan competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
MI-07
Democratic
D+7.0
MI-10
Democratic
D+2.0
Minnesota (1)
Minnesota competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
MN-02
Democratic
D+11.8
Nebraska (1)
Nebraska competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
NE-02
Republican
R+17.4
Nevada (1)
Nevada competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
NV-03
Democratic
D+4.3
New Jersey (1)
New Jersey competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
NJ-07
Democratic
D+9.4
New Mexico (1)
New Mexico competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
NM-02
Democratic
D+13.6
New York (3)
New York competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
NY-04
Democratic
D+18.1
NY-17
Democratic
D+16.1
NY-19
Democratic
D+20.1
North Carolina (1)
North Carolina competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
NC-01
Democratic
D+4.2
Ohio (2)
Ohio competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
OH-09
Republican
R+3.9
OH-13
Republican
R+8.9
Oregon (1)
Oregon competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
OR-05
Democratic
D+22.3
Pennsylvania (3)
Pennsylvania competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
PA-07
Democratic
D+1.7
PA-08
Democratic
D+1.7
PA-10
Democratic
D+1.7
Texas (1)
Texas competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
TX-34
Republican
R+6.5
Virginia (1)
Virginia competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
VA-02
Democratic
D+9.3
Washington (1)
Washington competitive House districts by forecast lean.
District
Favored
Forecast margin
WA-03
Democratic
D+26.3
Wisconsin (1)
Wisconsin competitive House districts by forecast lean.